Markström's Panthers Gamble Pays Off as Hellebuyck Stays Out

Florida's goalie plan looked like a long shot in July, and three starts in, it's starting to look like a smart one. Bill Zito didn't land the goalie he wanted, but the Markström trade has given the Panthers stability in net while Connor Hellebuyck's situation in Winnipeg drags on.

Markström turning back the clock

The Panthers reportedly had Hellebuyck on their radar after Sergei Bobrovsky and Daniil Tarasov left in free agency. Reporting suggested Buffalo was the only club that came close to acquiring the former Hart Trophy winner at the Draft. Zito pivoted to Jacob Markström, who came over from New Jersey and returned to the organization that drafted him in 2008. Plenty of observers doubted that a 36-year-old coming off a rough season could carry the crease. So far, he's answered.

Last season in New Jersey, Markström posted a 23-19-1 record in 44 games with an .883 save percentage and a 3.07 GAA. Those were some of the weakest numbers of his career, and they matched what he produced during his Florida years from 2010 to 2014, when he was in his early 20s. Looking at that season alone makes the bounce-back look sudden. It isn't. Over six full seasons in Vancouver, he never posted a sub-.900 save percentage or a GAA above 3.00. In Calgary, he dipped under .900 only once, in 2022-23, when he finished at .892 in 59 games with a 2.92 GAA. That's a goalie who has been reliable in heavy workloads, with one bad year in the middle.

The current numbers are a different story. Through three starts, Markström is at a .927 save percentage and a 1.27 GAA, with a shutout already on the board. He hasn't matched his 2021-22 peak, when he led the NHL with nine shutouts and posted a .922 save percentage and 2.22 GAA. But this start is ahead of where most people expected a veteran in his mid-30s to be. Three games is a small sample, and I wouldn't draw big conclusions yet. Still, the process looks sound, and the team in front of him is built to win playoff games, which makes his job easier.

Hellebuyck's clock is ticking

The Winnipeg side of this story is less comfortable. Hellebuyck didn't report to Jets training camp and was suspended by the team. A fan-run site, Hellebucks.com, estimates he has already forfeited about $450,000 in salary. He hasn't played competitive hockey since April, and the regular season is already two weeks old. For a goalie, that layoff matters. Timing, rhythm and workload tolerance are hard to rebuild in a few games, and every week he sits adds to the gap.

That's why Florida has little reason to revisit the Hellebuyck idea right now. Any team that trades for him would be buying a goalie who needs time to get ready, and the Panthers already have one playing well. That said, the picture can change quickly if Winnipeg's situation moves toward a resolution, so it's worth watching.

The Bruins precedent and the Bobrovsky question

Boston offers a useful comparison. Two years ago, Jeremy Swayman missed the entire preseason during a contract dispute. He signed before Opening Night, but he didn't look like himself for a while, and the Bruins ended up missing the playoffs. Signing late is one thing. Missing the entire camp is another, and goalies usually need the reps to find their timing. Hellebuyck's situation looks more like Swayman's than most goalie holdouts do, and that's a concern for whichever team ends up with him.

Bobrovsky's start in Toronto is rougher. He's 0-2-1 with a .906 save percentage and a 2.96 GAA, both better than his final numbers in Florida, but the record hasn't followed. The Maple Leafs have a mix of young and veteran talent and sit at 2-2-1 through five games. Once that group settles, it could push for a playoff spot, and Bobrovsky's trajectory will matter to that effort. Comparing the three goalies is the fun part of the storyline: a veteran who has rebounded in Florida, a star stuck on the sidelines in Winnipeg, and a former Panther trying to find traction in Toronto.

What to watch next

Saturday's home opener gives Florida a chance to show that the early form is more than a hot stretch. The questions for Markström are workload and consistency across a full season, especially since most of his best stretches came when he was asked to carry a lot of the load. For Hellebuyck, the questions are whether he can get back on the ice in time to matter and what that return looks like. My read is that Florida's position is strong either way. The Panthers didn't get the goalie they first targeted, but they may have gotten the better offseason answer.