Panthers' Slow Starts Are Becoming a Real Pattern

Florida heads into Sunday's afternoon game against the Chicago Blackhawks as the 12th game of the 2026-27 season, sitting at 5-4-2. The Panthers are on a two-game losing streak in which they've been outscored 9-1, and that skid follows a stretch with some eye-catching results, including historic hat tricks and blowout wins. The number that stands out, though, is less flashy: Florida has surrendered the game's first goal in 72.7% of its contests. That's the trend worth watching, because it explains why the Panthers keep spending so much of their time chasing.

Where the first-goal problem shows up

Start with the opener. Florida beat Carolina 1-0 in overtime, scoring the only goal of that game. The road trip through California was a different story. The Panthers allowed the first goal in all three games against San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles. They dropped the first two by a single goal in overtime, then bounced back to beat the Kings 2-1.

The home opener against Minnesota followed the same script. Florida conceded first and lost 4-1, its first multi-goal defeat of the season. Buffalo added another loss, but the Panthers got their second comeback win the next day against Columbus. Against Vancouver at home, the Canucks grabbed a 2-0 lead before Brady Tkachuk turned the game around.

The biggest sign of progress came on Oct. 17, in the ninth game of the season. Florida scored first in regulation for the first time all year and rolled to an 8-3 win over Seattle. Then came Tkachuk's return to Ottawa. He scored the game's first goal, and it was Florida's only goal in a 5-1 loss to the Senators. The most recent game in Pittsburgh was the sharpest drop: a 4-0 shutout loss, the first of the season, and no goals in five periods.

Better at digging out, but still digging

Here's the thing: this group is handling deficits better than last year's. Through the first 11 games of 2025-26, which included a stretch without captain Aleksander Barkov, Florida went 5-5-1 with a goal differential of minus-4. It allowed the opening goal six times that year and went 1-4-1 in those games.

This season the Panthers are 3-2-2 when they concede first, and they've earned eight standings points in those games. Through the same stretch last year, they had three. Barkov has been out for the past nine games, so the team has been adjusting without its captain, and the results in comeback situations show real resilience.

That said, a 3-2-2 mark in games you trail early is not a plan. A club that falls behind in most of its games is asking its comeback ability to carry too much weight, and sooner or later a defeat like the Pittsburgh shutout shows how little margin that leaves.

The goaltending question

The streak of seven straight games allowing the first goal stands out, and it points toward Akira Schmid. The 26-year-old netminder has appeared in five games this season, four starts and one relief appearance. He has given up the opening goal three times. Against Buffalo, he allowed the next goal after entering in relief, which made a tough night even harder to escape.

Schmid's struggles reach back to his time with the Vegas Golden Knights. He gave up the opening goal in each of his final five appearances with that club, and all five were losses. That doesn't prove much on its own, since goaltending slumps can come from a bad mix of shot quality, defensive coverage and bounces. But a pattern that spans two organizations is hard to dismiss, and it puts the spotlight on how the crease is being managed as the season moves along.

What to watch against Chicago and beyond

Opening goals matter more than they look like they should in the standings. When a team trails early, its structure gets stretched, its forecheck gets desperate and its best players tend to press. Florida has the talent to avoid that spiral, and the roster has produced standout individual performances. The question is whether it can keep the game close enough early that those players never have to force the issue.

Sunday's game in Chicago is a clean test. If Florida gets the first goal, or at least keeps the score tight through the first period, that would suggest the early-season trend is starting to break. If the Blackhawks take the lead again, the Panthers will need another comeback to snap the two-game skid, and the goaltending conversation will get louder. My read: the comeback numbers are encouraging, but the best version of this team scores first and plays with a lead, and that's the habit Florida still has to build.