Seth Jones' Torrid Start Puts Him in the Norris Trophy Conversation

Seth Jones is having the kind of start that forces a Norris Trophy conversation, and it's not hard to see why. Here's the thing, though: the scoring is only half the argument, and the history of this award suggests the other half matters just as much.

Jones scored his third goal of the season Wednesday against the Chicago Blackhawks, his former club. The former first-round pick has 19 points in 16 games, good for fourth among NHL defensemen in scoring. He also set a Panthers record for points in a single month of October with 18. If he keeps this pace, he's on track for 100 points, which would shatter his career high of 57.

Being a top-scoring defenseman doesn't guarantee a Norris Trophy

Scoring leaders don't walk into the Norris with a lock. To test that, we went through every Norris Trophy winner in the salary cap era, which began in 2005-06. The results are more humbling than most fans would guess. About 61.9% of winners did not finish first among defensemen in scoring. The largest group, 42.9%, finished second. Only 38.1% of winners were their position's top scorer, and a couple of winners ranked fifth, one ranked 10th and another ranked 12th.

That context changes how to read Jones' start. Being near the top of the scoring race helps, but it's a credential, not a verdict. Voters in this award have historically rewarded defensemen who drive play at both ends, and offense is only one part of that picture.

The chase is tight, and the favorite has a head start

Right now, Jones is chasing Edmonton's Evan Bouchard, who is the presumptive favorite after one of the most productive months a defenseman has had in recent memory. Bouchard has 28 points in 16 games and is a plus-23 on an Oilers team that also features Connor McDavid, who is on pace for 210 points. Bouchard's plus-minus is the number that stands out most. Plus-23 on a team this loaded is hard to dismiss, though it's fair to ask how much of it reflects the players around him.

Behind Bouchard, the picture gets crowded. Quinn Hughes, who won the award two seasons ago and will be a free agent soon, has 22 points in 17 games while helping the Minnesota Wild sit atop the Central Division. Jones is tied at 19 points in 16 games with Mikhail Sergachev of the Utah Mammoth and Adam Fox of the New York Rangers. Minnesota looks like a real contender, with Hughes adding offense and Kirill Kaprizov off to the best start of his career. Utah and New York are beating expectations, and both owe a good deal of that to Sergachev and Fox.

Florida's October depended on Jones' offense

The Panthers came through October without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand for stretches, and they managed early struggles that included no points from Brady Tkachuk over five games and very little secondary scoring through the first two weeks. In that context, Jones' production has been a big reason Florida didn't fall apart. My read is that his output has kept the team afloat while the depth scorers found their footing.

The November numbers are a different story. Florida is now in the thick of a tight playoff race, and the early-season scoring has leveled out. Jones sits at plus-3, which is a respectable number but far from the elite marks. Only nine NHL defensemen have a double-digit plus-minus, and reaching that mark, or matching Bouchard, would take a lot more than a hot month. Jones' defensive assignments are demanding, and a plus-minus rating reflects them in a way that a points total doesn't. That said, the rating also reflects team results, and the Panthers haven't always been on the right side of close games.

Still, value to Florida goes beyond the plus-minus column. If Jones keeps producing offensively while handling tough minutes against top lines, he builds a case as one of the league's most complete defensemen. That's the profile that tends to win this award.

What would move the needle from here

Winning the Norris means being the best defenseman in the league, not necessarily the best scorer among defensemen. That distinction matters for Jones. If he stays in the points race with Bouchard and Hughes and the Panthers lock down a playoff spot, whether early or through a late wild-card push, that's the kind of team success that tends to help a player's standing with the award's voters. If Edmonton runs away with the standings, the question becomes how much of Bouchard's success comes from his own play and how much from playing alongside McDavid.

Jones has an outside chance at a top-three finish, which would beat his previous best of fourth place in 2017-18. Either way, Florida's Stanley Cup hopes run through Jones continuing to be one of its most important offensive contributors. If he does, the Norris conversation will keep getting louder.