Linus Ullmark's Vezina Case Survives a Lower-Body Setback

Eight games on the shelf is a real dent in a goalie's season, but it doesn't end a Vezina push. Linus Ullmark's start has been strong enough that the award is still a fair conversation, even with the Ottawa Senators forced to play without him.

A return that looks set for Tuesday

The Senators have reassigned Jonas Johansson to the Belleville Senators of the AHL, which clears the way for Ullmark to come back. Reports out of Ottawa point to Ullmark returning Tuesday night against the Washington Capitals. That's the expected path, and it's the kind of roster move that usually signals a coach is ready to hand the net back to his starter. Ullmark missed the last eight games with a lower-body injury, and he left the October 21 game against the Florida Panthers in the third period. The timing was rough for both him and an organization that has been counting on him to stabilize a season that needed it.

The start that makes this worth watching

Before the injury, Ullmark was playing like one of the best goalies in the league. In eight games he went 7-1, which is the kind of run that reshapes a season in a hurry. His 1.33 goals-against average and .945 save percentage were still the best in the league among goaltenders when the numbers were pulled. That's a small sample, and nobody should pretend otherwise, but it's a sample that shows he was not easing into the year. He was stopping pucks at a rate that makes a voter's job easy, even if voting isn't the point here.

Here's the thing: a hot eight-game stretch isn't a Vezina résumé on its own. What it does is put him in the conversation early, and that matters when the award is decided by how a goalie performs across the full schedule.

Why the talent question isn't really the question

Nobody serious doubts Ullmark can win another one. He already won the Vezina with the Boston Bruins after the 2022-23 season, a year when he appeared in just 49 regular-season games and posted a 40-6-1 record, a .938 save percentage and a 1.89 goals-against average. Some people will call 49 games a small sample in an 82-game schedule. The voters didn't see it that way, and that season is the proof that his early numbers this year reflect a skill set rather than a lucky streak.

The real question is opportunity. With 66 games left on the schedule, the Senators have plenty of room to build a case, but only if Ullmark gets the starts. Teams in this position often have to decide whether to ride a hot starter hard or protect him from workload, and that decision can shape a goalie's award case as much as his save percentage does. A goalie who plays 50-plus games and keeps his numbers near the top of the league is a much easier sell than one who gets stuck on the sideline in the middle of the year.

Managing the workload and the back-to-backs

The schedule adds another layer. Ullmark will be leaning on a backup, Samuel Ersson, to carry some of the load, and the Senators will have to pick their spots. Ottawa can't afford to overwork its starter, because a tired Ullmark in February would hurt more than a rested one in October helps. The smartest path is probably the one that keeps him fresh for the games that matter most, especially with the Senators hoping to make a third straight postseason.

That also means the save percentage will likely come down from .945. Expecting a goalie to sustain that number over a full season is a tall order, and that's fine. The more useful benchmark is whether he can stay above .900 while stealing the wins Ottawa needs. If he does that, he stays in the same conversation as Jesper Wallstedt, Jacob Fowler and his former Boston tandem partner Jeremy Swayman, who is also in the mix this season.

What to watch next

My read is simple. If Ullmark returns Tuesday and looks like himself, the injury becomes a footnote and the Vezina conversation picks right back up. If the Senators handle his minutes carefully and he keeps the wins coming, that early 7-1 run will look like the first chapter of a serious season rather than a fast start that faded. Keep an eye on the first few starts after he's back, how much work he gets in the next stretch of back-to-backs, and whether Ottawa's wins start piling up in the games he's in net. Those are the signals that will tell us whether this is still a Vezina story or just a good month that happened to be cut short.