Pistons Holland, Huerter and Smith Need to Earn Their Minutes Now

A 4-1 start puts the Pistons in the conversation as one of the teams to beat in the East, and that changes the math for everyone on the bench. Depth is a luxury until it starts costing you wins. When a deep roster has a few players quietly eating rotation minutes without producing, the coaching staff has to weigh loyalty against results, and the next few weeks will show which way the balance tilts for three Pistons in particular.

Ron Holland's Year 3 problem is the jumper

Holland's defense is the reason he still has a clear path to minutes. The defensive upside is real, and he's helping Detroit on that end. The trouble is everything at the other end. Through five games he has played 72 minutes and shot 6-of-21 from the field, with no makes from three in six attempts. Some of those misses have been ugly, including airballs on wide-open looks, and he's averaging 2.8 points per game. Few players in the league have been less efficient so far.

That matters because of who he shares the floor with. Holland has become harder to play next to Ausar Thompson, and a lineup that already leans on defense can't absorb a non-shooter without the half-court offense grinding to a halt. Teams sag off players who can't punish them, and defenders stop respecting the drive once the jumper has gone cold for a few weeks.

My read is that Holland's role is about to get very specific. If he doesn't start hitting shots or find a way to create something useful in the half court, expect his workload to settle in the 10-to-15-minute range per game. In a rotation this deep, that's a tough place for a third-year player to build confidence. It also makes him one of the Pistons most likely to be discussed as a trade piece around the deadline. That's an opinion based on his current role and the depth around him, not a report of any talks.

Kevin Huerter's numbers are a small-sample warning

The on/off figures are the eye-catcher here. Through five games, Huerter has the worst on/off rating on the team, with Detroit scoring 28.7 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor than off, according to Cleaning the Glass. That's a dramatic number, and it deserves caution. Five games is a tiny window, and on/off splits swing wildly with lineup context, opponent quality and shot luck. Nobody should treat it as a verdict on his season.

Still, the eye test points the same direction. When Huerter checks in, he becomes an obvious target on defense, and opponents keep attacking him. He isn't making up the difference on the other end either, shooting 39.3% from the field and 29.4% from three. For a wing whose value depends on spacing and steady shooting, those percentages leave little margin.

Here's the thing, though: Huerter still has Bickerstaff's trust. He's been logging more minutes with Isaiah Joe sidelined, and that opportunity is real. The problem is what happens when Joe returns. Chaz Lanier and Ebuka Okorie are waiting for their chances too, and a crowded wing group pushes the player with the weakest recent efficiency toward the edge of the rotation. Coaches often reward the lineup that stops the bleeding, and right now Huerter isn't the one doing it. If the on/off profile holds up over a longer sample, he could become a trade candidate by the deadline.

Tolu Smith's window is closing on his own clock

Smith's situation is the most straightforward of the three, and that's what makes it worrying. Jalen Duren's injury opened up real center minutes, and Smith hasn't been the one to claim them. Paul Reed has been playing as many minutes as he can handle, and John Collins has been sliding up to center when Reed rests. The fact that Bickerstaff doesn't trust Smith to play even ten minutes while Duren is out tells you where he sits in the coaching staff's thinking.

The minutes he has gotten haven't gone well. Detroit was a whopping minus-18 in the six minutes Smith played against the Knicks. Six minutes is a tiny sample, but it's a sample that offers no evidence in his favor, and a third-string center without production doesn't have a lot of room to argue for more time.

Duren is expected to be out for at least another week or so, which leaves a clear opening at center. Smith is 26, and the Pistons have a lot of bodies competing for the same few roster and rotation spots. If he can't turn that opportunity into something productive, it will be hard to justify keeping him around much longer. Teams generally want a backup big who can hold the paint, rebound and avoid giving up easy looks, and that's what Smith needs to show in the next stretch of games.

What to watch over the next few weeks

The common thread is that a hot start doesn't protect anyone on the fringe. It raises expectations. Holland needs a jumper that begins to fall, or at least a half-court role that doesn't clog the floor. Huerter needs his defensive assignments and shot profile to stop dragging his on/off numbers down before the sample hardens. Smith needs to take the center minutes Duren's absence has made available and play well enough that the coaching staff has to reconsider. Pay attention to how Bickerstaff distributes minutes once Isaiah Joe is back and once Duren returns. That's when the real pecking order will show, and it's when the decisions about these three will start to feel less theoretical. A team with this much depth can afford to be patient for a few games, but it can't afford to waste rotation spots, and the next few weeks will make clear which of these players is earning his place.